A wave of doom and gloom is rippling across Brooklyn’s business community — surprise! — according to a new survey of borough professionals released on Monday. And they have every right to be scared out of their minds, according to experts who gave a foreboding economic forecast the next day.
Fifty-seven percent of businesses polled by Sovereign Bank for the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce said they expect the economy to be worse this year than last, a huge increase in pessimism compared to last year’s survey, when only 18 percent of merchants said local business would be worse than the year before.
When asked about their own companies, 53 percent of the 109 respondents said they are bracing for a worse 2009 than 2008. Last year, 17 percent said they expected their business to drop.
Only 32 percent said they expect to do better in 2009 than in 2008, a drop of 22 points compared to last year’s poll.
The findings of the study did not surprise Chamber businesses.
“We have fewer new gym members this year than last year,” said Reyanna Menzer, the general manager of Harbor Fitness in Park Slope. Fitness clubs typically see a surge in membership after people make New Year’s resolutions to get in shape.
The opinion poll doesn’t bode well for job seekers either: 57 percent of businesses said they don’t plan to hire anyone this year. Even businesses that expect to expand predict only modest gains in their workforce, with 32 percent of respondents saying that they may hire one to five new employees.
But if you have a job, the survey indicates you may be able to hold onto it, because 78 percent of employers said they do not plan to lay anyone off.
Not, yet, at least.
The numbers were released on Monday on the eve of the Chamber’s annual “economic outlook breakfast” on Tuesday morning at the Brooklyn Marriott.
The ominous reports from the experts were enough to cause some attendees to lose their appetite in the hotel’s ballroom.
“The downturn in the city will be longer and sharper,” than the rest of the country, said George Sweeting, deputy director of the city Independent Budget Office. “We’re looking at a major contraction of the city economy.” (That means Brooklyn, too!)
Sweeting said the city may shed 243,000 jobs during the recession, many of them in the first half of 2009.
His remarks also suggested that Downtown Brooklyn could bear the brunt of the pain, because with vacancy rates for commercial space increasing in Manhattan, the outer boroughs will lose their luster as a frugal alternative.
Others said the city will be dependent on the small business community to get through the choppy seas.
“Small businesses continue to be the backbone of the city economy,” said Andrew Kimball, president of the Brooklyn Navy Yard, the city-owned industrial park, which incubates many small companies.
Unlike the chaos on Wall Street, Kimball said he’s lost only one tenant in the Navy Yard in the last three months.
